Africa’s high vulnerability to climate change

The continent has been warming at about +0.3 °C per decade between 1991 and 2023, placing 2023 in the top three warmest years in the 124-year record, as highlighted by the WMO State of the Climate in Africa 2023 Report.

Africa stands at a critical crossroads in the fight against climate change, facing disproportionate burden from climate change and adaptation costs according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). As temperatures rise faster than the global average, the continent faces a future where extreme droughts, floods, and food insecurity become the norm.

Africa’s extreme vulnerability to climate shocks has altered the lives of millions across the continent, causing massive humanitarian crises with detrimental impacts on agriculture and food security, education, energy, infrastructure, peace and security, public health, water resources, and overall socio-economic development, fueling displacement and migration and worsening the threat of conflict over dwindling resources.

Over the past 60 years, Africa has observed a warming trend that has become more rapid than the global average. In 2023, the continent experienced deadly heat waves, heavy rains, floods, tropical cyclones, and prolonged droughts, said WMO Secretary-General. The continent has been warming at about +0.3 °C per decade between 1991 and 2023, placing 2023 in the top three warmest years in the 124-year record, as highlighted by the WMO State of the Climate in Africa 2023 Report.

Severe droughts in 2023 have severely impacted parts of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Nigeria, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and the Democratic Republic of Congo experienced. Zambia faced its worst drought in the last 40 years, affecting eight out of ten provinces and approximately six million people.

Droughts have reduced North Africa’s cereal production to 10% below the five-year average in 2023, and Tunisia was the worst hit. The WMO report has also shown that on average, African countries are losing 2–5% of GDP and many are diverting up to 9% of their budgets responding to climate extremes. In sub-Saharan Africa, the cost of adaptation is estimated to be between US$ 30-50 billion annually over the next decade, or 2-3% of the region’s GDP.

Agriculture is the mainstay of Africa’s livelihoods and national economies, supporting more than 55% of the labor force. However, its agricultural productivity growth has declined by 34% since 1961 due to climate change, which is the highest decrease compared to what other regions of the world have experienced. Climate change and the diminishing natural resource base could fuel conflicts for scarce productive land, water, and pastures, with geographic concentrations in many sub-Saharan countries, according to the report.

While many countries in the Horn of Africa, southern and North-West Africa suffered exceptional multi-year drought, other countries experienced extreme precipitation events in 2023 leading to flooding with significant casualties, including at least 4 700 confirmed deaths in Libya and 8 000 missing. Parts of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia experienced widespread and severe flooding, with more than 350 deaths and 2.4 million displaced people during the April-June rainy season.

Severe flooding with associated landslides affected central Africa in early May on the border between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, killing at least 574 people. In September and October, approximately 300,000 people were affected by flooding across 10 countries, with Niger, Benin, Ghana and Nigeria most heavily impacted.

By 2030, it is estimated that up to 118 million extremely poor people (living on less than US$ 1.90 per day) will be exposed to drought, floods and extreme heat in Africa, if adequate response measures are not put in place. This will place additional burdens on poverty alleviation efforts and significantly hamper growth, according to figures cited in the WMO report.

Climate change is also a threat multiplier for diseases that are disproportionately prevalent in Africa. For example, the region accounts for over 90% of the global malaria burden, and the WHO estimates that climate change will lead to an additional 60,000 deaths per year between 2030 and 2050 from an entirely preventable and treatable disease.

Africa’s future depends on urgent decisions made today, not just to mitigate climate disaster but to build resilience and ensure sustainable growth in the face of climate change. Resilience building against the impact of climate change means creating a continent that can adapt, bounce back, and thrive in the face of unforeseen shocks, stresses, and challenges.

References
www.reliefweb.int/report/world/africa-suffers-disproportionately-climate-change
www.wmo.int/news/media-centre/africa-faces-disproportionate-burden-from-climate-change-and-adaptation-costs
www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/africas-climate-crisis-health-crisis?gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQiAi_G5BhDXARIsAN5SX7qafzTwSWHKH-E7HIwNZInbZN90MpMeLZqIn0KTrQEpj__utbs49W4aAipqEALw_wcB
www.climateadaptationplatform.com/climate-change-in-africa-and-mitigating-its-impacts-and-risks/
www.weforum.org/stories/2024/04/african-cities-climate-change-resilience/